Prediction Revisited, I Was Right!
Aug. 20th, 2008 11:00 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
mishalakProbably as much by accident as by design, but I was right nonetheless. Back in May I predicted in the Denvention 3 community that a Worldcon in Denver would be "~3,500 warm bodies and ~4,500 memberships, plus or minus about 300 on both those numbers."
The numbers on the Denvention 3 website says, "Total warm bodies not including Kid-in-tow 3,751". Not bad. Even better, 3,697, if I exclude the 'special passes' as I expect the long list people will do. What about total memberships? Adding them all up I get 4,618. So even closer on that number. My prediction could have been wrong if the economy had been better and I cannot remember if I was taking that into account or not when I made the prediction. But I was right in my prediction and since I would have had to eat crow if I'd been wrong I feel quite happy in posting this.
Anyone want to see if I can do it again for the next Worldcon? If so I'll get my spreadsheet updated and read the statistical entrails for your entertainment.
Interesting side note: The size of Denvention makes it only a little larger than ConAdian, the 1994 convention in Winnipeg, which the long list puts at 3,570 and a bit smaller than TorCon with 3,834.
The numbers on the Denvention 3 website says, "Total warm bodies not including Kid-in-tow 3,751". Not bad. Even better, 3,697, if I exclude the 'special passes' as I expect the long list people will do. What about total memberships? Adding them all up I get 4,618. So even closer on that number. My prediction could have been wrong if the economy had been better and I cannot remember if I was taking that into account or not when I made the prediction. But I was right in my prediction and since I would have had to eat crow if I'd been wrong I feel quite happy in posting this.
Anyone want to see if I can do it again for the next Worldcon? If so I'll get my spreadsheet updated and read the statistical entrails for your entertainment.
Interesting side note: The size of Denvention makes it only a little larger than ConAdian, the 1994 convention in Winnipeg, which the long list puts at 3,570 and a bit smaller than TorCon with 3,834.
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(no subject)
Date: 2008-08-24 05:33 am (UTC)Thing is, I'm not sure why, exactly. I suspect it was mostly due to factors external to the con. Also, I think I expected it to be better, and the fact that a lot of people I know and expected to make it didn't was a bit of downer.
Ah, well.