Prediction Revisited, I Was Right!

[mishalak]

Probably as much by accident as by design, but I was right nonetheless. Back in May I predicted in the Denvention 3 community that a Worldcon in Denver would be "~3,500 warm bodies and ~4,500 memberships, plus or minus about 300 on both those numbers."

The numbers on the Denvention 3 website says, "Total warm bodies not including Kid-in-tow 3,751". Not bad. Even better, 3,697, if I exclude the 'special passes' as I expect the long list people will do. What about total memberships? Adding them all up I get 4,618. So even closer on that number. My prediction could have been wrong if the economy had been better and I cannot remember if I was taking that into account or not when I made the prediction. But I was right in my prediction and since I would have had to eat crow if I'd been wrong I feel quite happy in posting this.

Anyone want to see if I can do it again for the next Worldcon? If so I'll get my spreadsheet updated and read the statistical entrails for your entertainment.

Interesting side note: The size of Denvention makes it only a little larger than ConAdian, the 1994 convention in Winnipeg, which the long list puts at 3,570 and a bit smaller than TorCon with 3,834.
 

Comments

[dd-b.livejournal.com]

Wow, just slightly larger than what I think of as (but wasn't) the last Worldcon I attended (1976). Now that it's too late, maybe I *should* have made the effort to get there after all. Was kicking around expenses and tradeoffs into the last week, really.

(I was also at 1980, 1987, and 1989 Worldcons. 1980 was pretty much a legit part of my early string, though somewhat separated. 1987 was because we hung our trip to England off it, and while several good things happened at the convention for us, we were also talking about blowing it off as early as Thursday evening. 1989 I was working on heavily, running photography for the retrospective slide show at closing ceremonies. So I tend not to think of those as part of my career as a Worldcon goer.)

[mishalak.livejournal.com]

So would you be in favor of future Worldcon prognostications? I think I can tap into the right flow of knowledge to give decent predictions. Though the numbers might have nothing to do with how the convention feels.

[dd-b.livejournal.com]

Yes, I'm interested. Sounds, from what little you've said of method, that you're looking at the right things, anyway. Best way to find out if they really *are* the right things is to run experiments.

[rvrjoe775.livejournal.com]

The space allocation suggests that more were expected, but that may just be an aspect of the convention center layout. However, this also meant that dealing with the party crowds was never painful, and I never waited long for an elevator. My longest waits the entire con were registration Wednesday morning (about an hour for prereg, would have been shorter later after they'd managed better splits for the lines) and hotel checkout Sunday morning.

I'm nearly certain I remember the warm body count being closer to 3300 for ConAdian.

Despite early rumblings about disorganized or fractured committee organization, it seemed to me that things ran fairly smoothly and on time. I had a great time at the con, largely due to the wonderful people I hung out with.

[mishalak.livejournal.com]

They may well have been expecting more. I would not have expected more, though. The population base Denver has to draw upon, the expense, and to total lack of advertising anywhere fans in Denver would notice it except at MileHiCon told me that they'd never get past 4,000. Not even if the economy was great.

I did not have the convention I wanted to have as I was kept busy being guest liaison and throwing a room party. Since I am working class rather than middle class I don't have the money to throw away on fannish potlatching so in the unlikely event I ever have the money to go to Worldcon again I won't waste my time and money by formally volunteering for anything. I will help out here and there with parties of people I know, but never, never again with a formal named position thing.

[kaffy_r]

The last worldcon I truly attended was in Baltimore, but the last one I truly enjoyed was, I think, Chicago in 82. I probably recall that one because three of us lucked into a half -suite for the same cost as a single room on the day we decided to go (we all lived in Chicago, and decided to go to the Hyatt on a lark) - and also, of course, because it was the year we discovered Mpls fandom. I recall that con being crowded but friendly. I can't recall a damned thing from the Baltimore convention so, for me at least, it must have been spectacularly underwhelming, whether because of crowding or anything else. It's my age, I suppose, but I've always thought 3600 to 3900 was a great number for Worldcon.

[mishalak.livejournal.com]

I was underwhelmed by Denvention 3, myself. Not because of a lack of size, but because my convention experience was not too my taste. I did get some wonderful experiences, but if I ever go to a Worldcon again (HA!) I shall not throw a room party and I shall not do any work. I do not have the money to throw away on fannish potlatch to show how great and important a fan I am.

[doubt72.livejournal.com]

You know, I'm local, and I want good things for the convention here, and did at least a bit to help it along and all that, but honestly... I think Denvention may have been my least favorite of the five I've been to.

Thing is, I'm not sure why, exactly. I suspect it was mostly due to factors external to the con. Also, I think I expected it to be better, and the fact that a lot of people I know and expected to make it didn't was a bit of downer.

Ah, well.

[rvrjoe775.livejournal.com]

Mayhap it's an age thing, but more likely it's a matter of when you discovered WorldCons, and how large your regional con is. I started attending WorldCons in the early 90s. Both Minicon at its population highwater mark and current CONvergence hit pretty close to the size of the recent Denvention. For me anything under 5000 feels small for WorldCon.

[kaffy_r]

You could be right. My first worldcon was Suncon, in '77, and that hovered a couple of hundred above 3,000 I think.