Economics and Carbon Dioxide
May. 24th, 2007 09:41 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
mishalakA Thought Problem
Worldwide emissions of carbon dioxide in 1990 were approximately 22 billion metric tons. The current population is about 6.7 billion, give or take some. So that works out to 3.28 tons per person on average if we were to achieve 1990 levels of pollution.
If combined with a goal of the whole world having the same standard of living as the United States of America, about $43,574 per person, that means that the worldwide goal is producing about $13.28 of economic activity per kilogram of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere (43574/3280). It would be an understatement to say that this will not be easy as currently the US is at about 20.6 tons per capita (more or less), or about $2.12 per kilogram.
The most efficient of all industrialized economies, in terms of least carbon dioxide released for the amount of GDP produced, is Switzerland at about $9.42 per kilogram, almost approaching the goal number. Now if the Swiss are thrown out as being an outlier and use the number five spot instead to evaluate the reasonableness of the carbon per GDP goal we have Denmark at $5.59, or a bit less than halfway there (42%). This gives me hope. Particularly since Denmark isn't in love with nuclear power, unlike France, which comes out ahead. So there realistic room to grown. Indeed I think it could be possible to both have a prosperous world economy and carbon emission levels that would not be good, but would prevent further damage.
The question is how fast and by what mechanism.
Worldwide emissions of carbon dioxide in 1990 were approximately 22 billion metric tons. The current population is about 6.7 billion, give or take some. So that works out to 3.28 tons per person on average if we were to achieve 1990 levels of pollution.
If combined with a goal of the whole world having the same standard of living as the United States of America, about $43,574 per person, that means that the worldwide goal is producing about $13.28 of economic activity per kilogram of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere (43574/3280). It would be an understatement to say that this will not be easy as currently the US is at about 20.6 tons per capita (more or less), or about $2.12 per kilogram.
The most efficient of all industrialized economies, in terms of least carbon dioxide released for the amount of GDP produced, is Switzerland at about $9.42 per kilogram, almost approaching the goal number. Now if the Swiss are thrown out as being an outlier and use the number five spot instead to evaluate the reasonableness of the carbon per GDP goal we have Denmark at $5.59, or a bit less than halfway there (42%). This gives me hope. Particularly since Denmark isn't in love with nuclear power, unlike France, which comes out ahead. So there realistic room to grown. Indeed I think it could be possible to both have a prosperous world economy and carbon emission levels that would not be good, but would prevent further damage.
The question is how fast and by what mechanism.
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(no subject)
Date: 2007-05-25 09:07 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2007-05-25 05:51 pm (UTC)The thing is that if all those countries pollution were added to the industrial nations of Western Europe, France, Germany, the UK, and Italy, I think it would still have a very favorable ratio. Even the European Union as a whole, including all those inefficient legacy industries in Eastern Europe comes in at 3.782 per kilo. Far short of where it needs to be, but 55% ahead of the US.
I think it is an achievable goal to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP in the industrialized nations in conjunction with cleaner industrialization of developing nations to reduce overall greenhouse emissions.