A New Hugo Dramatic Presentation Analysis

The announcement that Pan's Labyrinth was actually nominated for a Hugo changes the situation for my analysis. Having gone through the list of Hugo winners since 1990 and looking at box office receipts in the US vs chances of winning the Hugo against other movies I have a tentative prediction. Previously I though that V for Vendetta would win out of the second Pirates over the Caribbean movie. Possibly that The Prestige might pull a surprise. Without the big Pirate movie my first guess is that V for Vendetta has a 50% chance of winning if I am correct in box office being connected to votes.

In second with an estimated 38% chance of winning is The Prestige. Children of Men and Pan's Labyrinth currently have about equal chances of winning. A Scanner Darkly will pull a huge upset if it wins and indeed I think my hypothesis would be in serious doubt if it is not eliminated first or second.

This is based solely upon the box office business done by these movies. I may revise my prediction if I can find enough voting information from Worldcons since 1990 and find a more direct relationship between percentage of first round votes and box office totals.