A New Hugo Dramatic Presentation Analysis

[mishalak]

The announcement that Pan's Labyrinth was actually nominated for a Hugo changes the situation for my analysis. Having gone through the list of Hugo winners since 1990 and looking at box office receipts in the US vs chances of winning the Hugo against other movies I have a tentative prediction. Previously I though that V for Vendetta would win out of the second Pirates over the Caribbean movie. Possibly that The Prestige might pull a surprise. Without the big Pirate movie my first guess is that V for Vendetta has a 50% chance of winning if I am correct in box office being connected to votes.

In second with an estimated 38% chance of winning is The Prestige. Children of Men and Pan's Labyrinth currently have about equal chances of winning. A Scanner Darkly will pull a huge upset if it wins and indeed I think my hypothesis would be in serious doubt if it is not eliminated first or second.

This is based solely upon the box office business done by these movies. I may revise my prediction if I can find enough voting information from Worldcons since 1990 and find a more direct relationship between percentage of first round votes and box office totals.

Comments

[pompe.livejournal.com]

I would vote for Pan's Labyrinth. (Admittedly, I don't know what it grossed, but I guess it should have done well in Spain)

The other movies are all better than say, that Whedon movie which won recently, so I guess it was a better SF movie year than I remember it to have been.

[mishalak.livejournal.com]

I'd have to agree on 3/5 this year being better than Serenity, but then last year was pretty weak. Among Batman Begins, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, and Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit it looks like a pretty strong movie. The only one I might have placed above it was the Wallace & Gromit movie, and that's largely because of my sentimental attachment to it.

Right now both Pan's Labyrinth and Children of Men have grossed about the same amount and played to similar crowds. Both have handicaps that could hurt them in the final voting, but given the field they're up against it is not totally impossible for either of them to win. But it is unlikely since they've played to an audience about one half the size of that which went to see V for Vendetta. To say the least a person is very unlikely to vote for something if they've never seen it.

[pompe.livejournal.com]

Still, the people who vote may not be representative of the average movie goer. But I'd agree with you that both Children of Men and Pan's Labyrinth are more narrow things - and may also be the type of SF movies generic SF fans may not bother to see. (I liked them both, but the crowd were not the same type of people who went to see "Serenity"). I wonder which movie did best in Japan.

[mishalak.livejournal.com]

Oh average movie goeres certainly are not representative. But in looking at data since 1989 (so far) I've found some relationship between a movie doing more business and taking the Hugo home. Not a one to one, but certainly more than chance. That's why I assigned the numbers I did to this year's nominees. I need to keep extending it back but right now it seems like 90% of the ultimate Hugo winners are within 70% of the nominee with the largest box office total or the top money taker itself. That seems significant, but as I said I need to keep extending my spreadsheet further back to see if it hold through, say, 1975.

[pompe.livejournal.com]

Does it work with written SF too? The novels with largest sales tend to win?

[mishalak.livejournal.com]

That I do not know because I don't know where to get sales figures for novels. I'd love to study it though.

[replyhazy.livejournal.com]

How do you factor the Japanese Worldcon into your prediction (or do you)?

[mishalak.livejournal.com]

I don't believe it makes a big difference. The Hugo electorate is a smaller self selected part of the Worldcon membership that is probably somewhat consistent from year to year. Given how the nominations came out (no Japanese works on the lists) is proof enough that it won't be a big factor.

[replyhazy.livejournal.com]

Makes sense. I'm curious to see how this turns out.