Is Anyone Fooled?

When someone says something along the lines of, "I think fantasy is just fine, I just don't think it should be nominated for Hugos," does anyone actually think the person means that he actually thinks fantasy is okay? I mean really. It's as bad as the Seinfeldian, "Not that there is anything wrong with that."

Hugo Long Form Prediction and Thoughts

I wanted Pan's Labyrinth to win a Hugo. It didn't get nominated though. I suspect this is twofold. First off it is in a foreign language and that is a handicap, though not an insurmountable one as Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon showed in 2001 by getting nominated and winning. I think the biggest barrier is that it never caught on and became a phenomenon. The Hugo winner cannot be predicted by which book/movie/show has the most sales, but it really does not hurt.

The reason this isn't the only factor (besides fans not making up the majority of the market in the case of movies) is because of the same thing that keeps comedies from winning Best Picture at the Oscars. Something can be deeply enjoyed but viewed as not serious enough.

Going by this and after reviewing past year results my prediction is that V for Vendetta will win out over The Prestige, unless Pirates of the Caribbean 2 can overcome the "Well I enjoyed that, but it is too light" factor that sunk movies like Spiderman 2, Batman Begins, Men in Black, and so on. I will be very surprised if A Scanner Darkly or Children of Men come close to the top prize.

It is possible that Pan's Labyrinth could be declared eligible for the 2008 Hugos, based upon its very limited release in 2006, but though the provision exists I think it has never been exercised. But I think that unless it suddenly catches on when it goes to DVD that there won't be the 3/4 at the business meeting to carry such a motion. Though if there were the 3/4 to carry such a motion I think that it would be very likely to win a Hugo. It only did 36 million in box office business in the US as of last weekend, since 1980 only three movies that won Best Dramatic or Best Dramatic Long Form have taken in so little. Blade Runner, The Princess Bride, and Serenity. Long odds.

I'd make predictions about the other categories, but I don't know where to get market numbers as easily as I can get box office from IMDB.

Addendum: I don't know what I'll be voting for yet. I've not seen all these movies or read all the books. yet. To the library!