Keep Moving Forward

[mishalak]

It is time for advocates in California to evaluate when it would be possible to reverse the same sex marriage ban in the state constitution. It will be possible at some point, the question is when. We need numbers on the turn out of various age cohorts and good estimates of how those groups voted. Then we can decide when enough of an older generation has died off to give a win with a small margin.

Also I'll note that part of the reason Prop 8 passed is that there was no respected conservative advocate saying it was the wrong thing to do. In 1978 the Briggs Initiative went down to defeat largely because of Ronald Reagan's intended to be private comments against the measure becoming public and the Log Cabin Republicans.

Comments

[dd-b.livejournal.com]

I would guess a major factor, unfortunately, was the number of new black and hispanic voters that Obama brought into the electorate. Figures I've seen don't make me think they're going to be great supporters of gay rights, at least right away.

[mishalak.livejournal.com]

Possible. But I think it won't be as important as the fact that less than 50% of the adult 18-29 year old population in California will have turned out.