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Visions of the Beginning of the Century
Feb. 17th, 2007 02:52 pmI've heard of a brilliantly flawed movie called Sunshine (1999). It is about one family of Hungarian Jews from 1900 to about 1946. In its beginning it has a family of Jews celebrating the coming new century with hope that all the old persecutions of the past are over and follows them through all the coming persecutions and wars with ultimately the grandson becoming a communist in post war Hungry sending enemies of the state to the gulag.
It is a nice dramatic set up, but it does not seem terribly realistic to me. A Jew celebrating the end of persecution in 1900 would be like a homosexual doing the same in 2000, whistling in the dark at best. I doubt many homosexuals even in the first would think that the persecutions are over or that we're safe. It is not just the example of the past, Bavaria actually had a law of toleration of homosexuality before its union with greater Germany and what came afterwards. But also the rhetoric and power of people who do want to send us to the 'reeducation camps'. And I frankly doubt Jews around 1900 would think it was over and things would only get better from then on, even though it was better than at the start of the previous century.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. We have less to fear from militant islam than we do from our own militant christians by reason of proximity. (If the fundamentalist muslims were nearer to us we'd be in trouble, they're worse on the whole.) If I were to engage in the dicey game of predicting the future I see two possibilities. One a future where the whole world goes like the Spanish Civil War. Different sides fighting desperately for power and many people who have no good choice about which side to fight on caught up in it. Apocalyptic christians vs. apocalyptic muslims with both sides trying to convert by sword all the reasonable people of the world and sucking us into their conflict.
The second possibility is that this is a passing problem like the IRA. We'll have to endure a generation or two of reduced civil liberties because the masses 'demand it' according to the politicians. But eventually a combination of actual success and everyone finally getting tired of it will result in a halting peace process and political settlement.
I think the second possibility is more likely. I hope I'm right.
It is a nice dramatic set up, but it does not seem terribly realistic to me. A Jew celebrating the end of persecution in 1900 would be like a homosexual doing the same in 2000, whistling in the dark at best. I doubt many homosexuals even in the first would think that the persecutions are over or that we're safe. It is not just the example of the past, Bavaria actually had a law of toleration of homosexuality before its union with greater Germany and what came afterwards. But also the rhetoric and power of people who do want to send us to the 'reeducation camps'. And I frankly doubt Jews around 1900 would think it was over and things would only get better from then on, even though it was better than at the start of the previous century.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. We have less to fear from militant islam than we do from our own militant christians by reason of proximity. (If the fundamentalist muslims were nearer to us we'd be in trouble, they're worse on the whole.) If I were to engage in the dicey game of predicting the future I see two possibilities. One a future where the whole world goes like the Spanish Civil War. Different sides fighting desperately for power and many people who have no good choice about which side to fight on caught up in it. Apocalyptic christians vs. apocalyptic muslims with both sides trying to convert by sword all the reasonable people of the world and sucking us into their conflict.
The second possibility is that this is a passing problem like the IRA. We'll have to endure a generation or two of reduced civil liberties because the masses 'demand it' according to the politicians. But eventually a combination of actual success and everyone finally getting tired of it will result in a halting peace process and political settlement.
I think the second possibility is more likely. I hope I'm right.