Future Visions: Terrorism

[mishalak]

The reason that terrorism is possible was the increasing availability of energy to the common man twined with the availability of information. Prior to the mass media there would be no point in blowing up a bunch of people as most people wouldn't hear about it for a long while and probably wouldn't be afraid. Likewise it was then very hard to get a hold of a large pile of explosives, or some huge moving thing with lots of kinetic energy, or anything else that might kill or maim a large number of people. The question is almost why more people upset with the way things are don't do it rather than why there is terrorism. The answer to that is in how much people with lots of energy available to them easily have to lose and in the modern forensic sciences that have so reduced in incidences of murder in the last century.

So the future of terrorism can be prognosticated if one can prognosticate if energy is going to be more or less available in the future, if the news media will be free to report sensationalistic stories in the future, and how effective forensic sciences will be.

As it stands now the energy available in the future would seem to be greater than in the past, though not in the same forms as the past. Genetic engineering will be easier and may make either a biologic weapon or chemical weapons a more viable form of terrorist attack. Not to trivialize the delivery problems with such weapons which are very hard to figure out, but once it has been done and the information escapes into the underworld then it will be much easier for mere imitators to build such a device. Likewise for now it seems that transportation systems are getting larger, though they are much better protected than they were before.

The news media also seems likely to be able to continue to report things that make us afraid. After all people want to know these things, it attracts their attention, so I think it likely that the trend to making people more afraid even as people are actually safer will continue.

So the prevalence of terrorism in the future would seem to rest upon how much more effective forensic science will be and/or if people become so afraid they decide to resort to greater control. I think it quite likely that people will accept greater control over their lives as that has been the trend for the last century out of both fear and convenience. I expect therefore terrorism to be about the same level of a problem as it is now. An occasional problem in most first world countries and a greater one in nations with a large class of serriously discontented people.

Comments

[scottscidmore.livejournal.com]

I'll agree with you in most part. Biological attacks do seem to be the more likely new weapons.

I think that those "fighting a war" may go after crops or food animals rather than people. Not directly killing people has the advantage that you lose less sympathy for your cause, especially from 3rd parties. Rising food prices in the target country will create disturbances there, pressures to settle the differences that are behind the 'war'; for countries were food exports are important it will hurt them economically as well, adding pressure from the business sector.

As in the past increasing control lead to increasing internal discontent, and eventual resistance, it may prove counterproductive in the long run. On the other hand, the changes in technology and social interactions may change how the general population reacts, or even perceives the control.

[mishalak.livejournal.com]

The difference is in the intrusion of the control. In the past you needed your internal passport stamped at every checkpoint and it was a big pain. In the future it will be done electronically without even stopping. People won't get upset about that. Also there will be a lot of control outside of the government. The current day example is the credit score. Or easy toll passes. So the government will, quietly, make it possible to look at those company reports that are painlessly gathered by companies that don't want to piss off their customers too greatly.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

On the other hand, terrorism by way of arson has been feasible for a very long time.

There may be another factor in modern terrorism--more is known about how to get people to do things, including murder/suicide. I expect that is only going to increase, too.

[mishalak.livejournal.com]

I'm not sure that arson would actually work as a method of terrorism. I mean the conditions for a fire that could sweep an area are not producible on demand. And it was tried. The Japanese tried to set the northwest of the US on fire during WWII and it didn't work at all.