![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Adding It Up
Apr. 9th, 2008 01:46 pmRight now (and keeping in mind that this is only right now, lots of months to go) based on state-by-state polling both Sen. Obama and Clinton will take CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, PA, RI & VT. That's (55+7+3+3+4+21+12+4+10+10+15+5+5+31+20+21+4+3=) 233 electoral votes, with 270 needed to win where are the other 37 for each candidate? Clinton probably will get Florida and West Virginia for another 32, five shy of winning using today's polls. Using the same methodology Obama does not get those states but does get Iowa, Oregon, North Dakota, and Washington, for 28 and nine short. But he comes close or ties in polls in Colorado, Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin. Both candidates come close to a win in Michigan against McCain and that would handily win it with 17 EV.
So each has a viable path to victory even though the polls have both of them losing or at best tying (impossible in an actual election) right now, but Obama's path to victory looks more likely given the larger number of states he is close in and has the possibility of being a blowout victory should he actually manage to take Texas (there is absolutely no way that a Republican can win without Texas. Impossible. And right now the polls are showing him just 1% down there.) And even if each race shakes down exactly as the polls predict right now Obama still has a chance by winning Colorado where he is tied with McCain.
Clinton on the other hand probably has Ohio and Pennsylvania solidly where Obama just barely takes them. So she's a sure bet for getting close, but the election will look a lot like 2000 all over again. It will come down to one or two states (in the end, it will be one or two of a list of five right now) with the rest being sure fire wins for one or the other.
Can McCain win? Totally possible by the numbers at this point he actually wins or comes very close in an EV match up rather than a nationwide poll. On the other hand he's weak in a lot of places and the campaign has yet to really get started. And how he hurts will depend on who he faces. With Obama he'll have to campaign all over the place and money is likely to be a problem. With Clinton it will come down to Washington, Minnesota, Nevada, Michigan and Florida (mostly likely). But only two of those are in the Republican column so he's got a better chance against her.
Clinton's Map on Electoral Vote.com.
Obama's Map on Electoral Vote.com.
So each has a viable path to victory even though the polls have both of them losing or at best tying (impossible in an actual election) right now, but Obama's path to victory looks more likely given the larger number of states he is close in and has the possibility of being a blowout victory should he actually manage to take Texas (there is absolutely no way that a Republican can win without Texas. Impossible. And right now the polls are showing him just 1% down there.) And even if each race shakes down exactly as the polls predict right now Obama still has a chance by winning Colorado where he is tied with McCain.
Clinton on the other hand probably has Ohio and Pennsylvania solidly where Obama just barely takes them. So she's a sure bet for getting close, but the election will look a lot like 2000 all over again. It will come down to one or two states (in the end, it will be one or two of a list of five right now) with the rest being sure fire wins for one or the other.
Can McCain win? Totally possible by the numbers at this point he actually wins or comes very close in an EV match up rather than a nationwide poll. On the other hand he's weak in a lot of places and the campaign has yet to really get started. And how he hurts will depend on who he faces. With Obama he'll have to campaign all over the place and money is likely to be a problem. With Clinton it will come down to Washington, Minnesota, Nevada, Michigan and Florida (mostly likely). But only two of those are in the Republican column so he's got a better chance against her.
Clinton's Map on Electoral Vote.com.
Obama's Map on Electoral Vote.com.