mishalak: A fantasy version of myself drawn by Sue Mason (Default)
From Mishalak on Blogspot

I think and expect that the right wing in America will calm down and stop spouting rhetoric like, "How much more will Americans take? When will enough be enough? And, when that time comes, will our leaders finally listen or will history need to record a second American Revolution?" A year or so and it will become apparent that it is just talk like the mutterings about escaping to Canada did for most liberals after Bush was elected.

Different people deal with disappointment in different ways, that's a key to understanding this. Some people think or talk about hurting the people they perceive as hurting them as a way to vent. I think what will actually happen is that most of the crazy people will go as far as buying a gun or two and making intemperate postings to the National Review Online about doing 'something' about gays, feminists, scary furrieners, blacks, and other liberal 'traitors'. A few people will take the rhetoric seriously and there will be some shootings and bombings with finally one getting so much attention that the movement will die due to backlash and the government doing something about it.

In other words I think sometime in the next three years there is going to be an event of the same impact as the Oklahoma City Federal Building bombing. It is more or less inevitable given how much the conservatives are made nuts by the thought of a person with as much melanin as Obama in the White House. What will it be? No idea, but it is coming as sure as Rush Limbaugh saying something provocative.

It will fail because unlike in a Latin American country there are not a huge number of people with nothing to lose here combined with (and this is critical) an army that has a tradition of taking over/overruling the government. Because no matter what they might dream in their fevered
imaginations militias cannot overthrow governments. Private citizens are just never as well armed or disciplined as units funded by the government. It is worrying how many right wing types there are in the army, of course, but the question is how many of them are led by
officers willing to cross the Rubicon? Not many I suspect.

Could I be wrong? I suppose so, but unless things get much, much worse than they are right now the seeds of civil war will fall upon parched ground.
 
mishalak: A fantasy version of myself drawn by Sue Mason (Thoughtful)
Disapprobation is a 50-cent word meaning strong disapproval and condemnation. And that's not what I think most Obama supporters are doing in putting out the line that Clinton should get out of the race for party unity. This is no different than any other campaign narrative or hypothesis. It is one part genuine view of what would be best for the Democratic party going forward, to end the race sooner so that McCain can be the target of the million plus little donations flowing to our candidate.

The second part is pure political strategy, unsurprisingly since this is politics. If it actually succeeds and Clinton gracefully leaves the campaign it is obviously good for our candidate. If she does not leave, but people agree with our argument (party unity, clearly ahead, stronger against McCain, etc) then it may help to win the remaining contests. People love jumping on a band wagon with the winner.

Political Number Crunching )

So why is it wrong to suggest she should get out for the good of the party if the only thing staying in does is waste Democratic campaign money?

Do you really think that if the roles were reversed Sen. Clinton's supporters would not try to put public pressure on Sen. Obama to drop out?

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mishalak: A fantasy version of myself drawn by Sue Mason (Default)
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