mishalak: A fantasy version of myself drawn by Sue Mason (Default)
[personal profile] mishalak
From Mishalak on Blogspot

I think and expect that the right wing in America will calm down and stop spouting rhetoric like, "How much more will Americans take? When will enough be enough? And, when that time comes, will our leaders finally listen or will history need to record a second American Revolution?" A year or so and it will become apparent that it is just talk like the mutterings about escaping to Canada did for most liberals after Bush was elected.

Different people deal with disappointment in different ways, that's a key to understanding this. Some people think or talk about hurting the people they perceive as hurting them as a way to vent. I think what will actually happen is that most of the crazy people will go as far as buying a gun or two and making intemperate postings to the National Review Online about doing 'something' about gays, feminists, scary furrieners, blacks, and other liberal 'traitors'. A few people will take the rhetoric seriously and there will be some shootings and bombings with finally one getting so much attention that the movement will die due to backlash and the government doing something about it.

In other words I think sometime in the next three years there is going to be an event of the same impact as the Oklahoma City Federal Building bombing. It is more or less inevitable given how much the conservatives are made nuts by the thought of a person with as much melanin as Obama in the White House. What will it be? No idea, but it is coming as sure as Rush Limbaugh saying something provocative.

It will fail because unlike in a Latin American country there are not a huge number of people with nothing to lose here combined with (and this is critical) an army that has a tradition of taking over/overruling the government. Because no matter what they might dream in their fevered
imaginations militias cannot overthrow governments. Private citizens are just never as well armed or disciplined as units funded by the government. It is worrying how many right wing types there are in the army, of course, but the question is how many of them are led by
officers willing to cross the Rubicon? Not many I suspect.

Could I be wrong? I suppose so, but unless things get much, much worse than they are right now the seeds of civil war will fall upon parched ground.
 

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-04 06:12 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dd-b.livejournal.com
Who knows, I probably don't know the social conservative Republican base. But the people *I* know, which covers an awful lot of the people who think the NRA is too willing to compromise away our gun rights, aren't the slightest bit bothered by Obama's melanin level, or by gays, or even that badly by other people having abortions. They're bothered by what they see as mortgaging the future of our country to preserve the fat-cats in the banks, and increasing encroachments on personal liberty, and compromising away national sovereignty, and supporting lazy people in relative luxury. And that last one doesn't actually happen very often.

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-05 05:40 am (UTC)
ext_5149: (Default)
From: [identity profile] mishalak.livejournal.com
On my way home from work today I heard a news report about a gunman who had killed three police officers. The report included a bit where a friend of the gunman talked about how he was upset about the zionist controlled media not reporting the truth about how guns are going to be banned.

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-05 03:26 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dd-b.livejournal.com
And in fact many statements supporting gun bans from Obama and most of his cabinet are easily available from the real history. I think Obama understands that now, as president, it would be a bad thing to try; at least I hope he does. But one doesn't need to be crazy to be worried.

Being crazy is the part where he thinks that shooting some policemen, or invoking Zionism, will somehow help.

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-06 03:35 am (UTC)
ext_5149: (Default)
From: [identity profile] mishalak.livejournal.com
No, I'd say the crazy part lies in the gap between "support for banning some types and/or models of guns in some localities" and "secret plot to ban all guns" as I keep hearing from some wantabe cops I have the misfortune to work with.

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-06 09:38 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dd-b.livejournal.com
Well, the guns they want to ban are popular models, many of them cheap (and most of them using cheap ammunition), and they're at the LOW end of the power range (too light to legally hunt deer with in many states), hence popular for practice and plinking, and not popular with criminals. And the history of gun control supports the common belief that gun bans start small and escalate; other than our allowing the AWB to expire in 2004, I don't know of another case where a gun prohibition has been undone.

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-06 02:21 pm (UTC)
ext_5149: (Default)
From: [identity profile] mishalak.livejournal.com
Fuck it. I hope he does have a secret plot to ban all guns. Just to piss people like you off.

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-06 02:25 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dd-b.livejournal.com
It would piss me off, since I supported him based on his assurances that he didn't. Most of the gun community, though, it will simply confirm their strongly held beliefs that you can't trust a liberal.

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-06 02:26 pm (UTC)
ext_5149: (Default)
From: [identity profile] mishalak.livejournal.com
I'm tired of arguing with people who believe that because Defense Spending was not in the general spending omnibus bill that this means Obama is plotting to destroy America. You're all deeply stupid people and I could be spending my time talking to reasonable middle of the road people rather than wasting it by talking to right wing nuts.

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-06 04:35 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dd-b.livejournal.com
I am not a right-wing nut. I am a gun nut. They're not at all the same. I voted for Obama, and against Norm Coleman, this last time around. I have never voted for a Republican in my life. I support NARAL and HRC (recognizing that neither is perfect). I think Bush stole the 2000 election. I am, if anything, a left-wing nut who happens to also like guns.

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-04 06:43 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] don-fitch.livejournal.com
For the next three years, that prediction seems not-unlikely, yes.

I'm more concerned with the possibility that within the next ten years Global Climate Change will advance to the point of disrupting the world's food & water supplies and creating an unfixable economic collapse -- soon followed by a quick (within a decade) reduction in the world's population, on the order of 50%. Extinction of the species Homo Sapiens might or might not follow in the course of a few centuries.

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-05 05:47 am (UTC)
ext_5149: (Default)
From: [identity profile] mishalak.livejournal.com
I think that is unlikely as well. To put it mildly. I think the current batch of end of humanity predictions results from the same thing that has always motivated apocalyptic predictions, human mortality. People cannot conceive of humanity going on without them so from middle age on end of the world stuff becomes popular.

Looking ahead ten years I predict annoyances for most people in the first world and dire straights for some people in the third world due to food disruptions. And ten years after that when you predict a population drop of 50% I foresee a world population of 8 billion +/- a billion.

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-04 10:18 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] melonaise.livejournal.com
I agree that there will be no armed, successful revolution. Some rioting, perhaps, some localized violence. But we lack the cohesiveness and the density for a revolution. Many of the people I know who are loudly angry about the gun laws and the socialism are also the types who are very proud of their independence from their fellow citizens. They aren't really part of a community, and they certainly won't take orders from anyone. And, as you said, most of us are just too comfortable to risk our lives or our livelihoods. There'd have to be a lot more desperate people to start a revolution.

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-05 06:01 am (UTC)
ext_5149: (Default)
From: [identity profile] mishalak.livejournal.com
I was reading about this subject in the NYTimes and I began to write a post wondering if I should arm myself in case the right wing nuts decide to start a real culture war. But after thinking about it a while I decided that I was being silly.

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-04 11:04 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] meowvatar.livejournal.com
Really good observations here, Matthew; I think many of them are spot on. :)

(no subject)

Date: 2009-04-05 06:03 am (UTC)

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